The Illusion of the Degree: The Dark Side of Higher Education Massification in Mexico

Abstract

This article examines whether the expansion of undergraduate programs in Mexico between 2000 and 2024 translated into proportional gains in adult cognitive competencies. Using a descriptive approach based on the National Association of Universities and Higher Education Institutions (ANUIES) data and the 2012 – 2018 cycle of the OECD’s Program for the International Assessment of Adult Competencies (PIAAC), it documents differentiated growth patterns by field of knowledge and institutional sector, contrasted with adult skill outcomes. Program supply grew substantially, particularly in business and administration (+228.3%), health sciences (+205.6%), and social sciences and law (+148.9%), with a growing share of private providers. Yet 53% of Mexican adults score at low literacy levels and 56% at low numeracy levels, while only 12% and 8% reach advanced proficiency. The evidence reveals a structural decoupling between credential expansion and effective skill development, interpreted through the lenses of credentialism, signaling and asymmetric information. The findings carry direct implications for quality and informational transparency policies in the Mexican higher education system.